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神達 (3706) EPS estimate and forward P/E
Estimates next quarter's EPS and forward P/E automatically from published monthly revenue and financial statements
This tool covers individual stocks in general and other industries only; ETFs have no earnings per share and are not listed.
Choose a ticker and the estimate will run automatically from published financial data.
Cannot be estimated
{{Forecast.FailReason}}
{{Forecast.SymbolName}} ({{Forecast.SymbolCode}}) {{Result.TargetYear}} Q{{Result.TargetSeason}} quarterly EPS estimate
{{DataQualityBadgeText}}
?
Model reliability: median error over the past {{Backtest.Count}} quarters is {{Backtest.MedianError}}%
?
⭐ Best method in backtesting: {{RecommendMethodName}}
{{Result.TargetYear}} Q{{Result.TargetSeason}} estimated EPS {{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.Eps)}} NT$
{{Forecast.SymbolName}} ({{Forecast.SymbolCode}}) {{Result.TargetYear}} Q{{Result.TargetSeason}} quarterly EPS is estimated at about
{{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.Eps)}} NT$, range
{{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.EpsPessimistic)}}–{{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.EpsOptimistic)}} NT$（±{{BandPercent}}%）。
On that basis, forward trailing-four-quarter EPS is about {{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.EpsNear4)}} NT$，
which, at the current price of {{FormatNumber(Forecast.ClosePrice)}} gives a forward P/E of
{{SelectedMethod.PeBase === null ? I18nUtil.t('Js.Eps.NaLoss') : FormatNumber2(SelectedMethod.PeBase) + ' ' + I18nUtil.t('Js.Eps.TimesUnit')}}。
📊 Relative position：{{FormatNumber2(SelectedMethod.PeBase)}} x sits at the {{RiverYearText}} forward P/E {{Forecast.PePercentile}} percentile，
{{PeVsMedianText}}the historical median of {{FormatNumber2(Forecast.PeMedian)}} x。
（sample period {{Forecast.PeSampleStart}}～{{Forecast.PeSampleEnd}}）
⚠️ {{Forecast.PeExtremeNote}}
📈 vs. previous quarter：estimate {{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.Eps)}} NT$ vs. {{Result.PrevQuarterYear}} Q{{Result.PrevQuarterSeason}} actual {{FormatEps(Result.EpsPrevQuarter)}} NT$
{{FormatChange(SelectedMethod.Eps, Result.EpsPrevQuarter)}}
📅 vs. same quarter last year：vs. {{Result.YoyQuarterYear}} Q{{Result.TargetSeason}} actual {{FormatEps(Result.EpsYoyQuarter)}} NT$
{{FormatChange(SelectedMethod.Eps, Result.EpsYoyQuarter)}}
🎯 Model reliability：over the past {{Backtest.Count}} quarters, the median estimate error for this stock is {{Backtest.MedianError}}%，
of which {{BacktestHitCount}} quarters had the actual value inside the estimate range（hit rate {{Backtest.HitRate}}%）。
{{Backtest.BestMethodName}} performs best on this stock.
Estimates use data from public disclosure sites; where the company has already published figures, the company announcement takes precedence.
Investors entering at different times will see different results, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Estimates use data from public disclosure sites; where the company has already published figures, the company announcement takes precedence.
Investors entering at different times will see different results, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
⏰ {{Result.TargetYear}} Q{{Result.TargetSeason}} results are expected to be reported by {{Forecast.NextAnnoDate}} ,
after which the target quarter switches to {{Forecast.NextTargetYear}} Q{{Forecast.NextTargetSeason}} and the estimate is recalculated from a new base.
📌 Previous estimate in review：{{Forecast.PrevTargetYear}} Q{{Forecast.PrevTargetSeason}} estimate EPS
{{FormatEps(Forecast.PrevEpsForecast)}} NT$，actual reported {{FormatEps(Forecast.PrevEpsActual)}} NT$，
error {{Forecast.PrevErrorRate > 0 ? '+' : ''}}{{Forecast.PrevErrorRate}}%。
Points to note
- {{w.Text}}
Method for estimating net margin
?
Best suited to: {{SelectedMethod.Applicability}}
⭐ {{Result.RecommendReason}}
{{SelectedMethod.Note}}
Pessimistic（Base −{{BandPercent}}%）
EPS {{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.EpsPessimistic)}} NT$
Forward 4Q {{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.EpsNear4Pessimistic)}} NT$｜{{FormatPe(SelectedMethod.PePessimistic)}}
Base
EPS {{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.Eps)}} NT$
Forward 4Q {{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.EpsNear4)}} NT$｜{{FormatPe(SelectedMethod.PeBase)}}
Optimistic（Base +{{BandPercent}}%）
EPS {{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.EpsOptimistic)}} NT$
Forward 4Q {{FormatEps(SelectedMethod.EpsNear4Optimistic)}} NT$｜{{FormatPe(SelectedMethod.PeOptimistic)}}
Agreement across the three methods: {{Result.ConfidenceText}}（coefficient of variation CV {{Result.EpsCv}}%）
?
{{Result.ConfidenceNote}}
⚠️ The quarterly net margin in the quarters below deviates markedly from the trailing-4Q median and may contain one-off items
This run excludes {{Result.ExcludedQuarters.join('、')}}, so the result assumes those quarters are not representative.
Fewer than 3 quarterly income statements have been reported, so forward trailing-four-quarter EPS cannot be formed and no forward P/E or river chart is calculated.
Forward trailing-four-quarter EPS is negative for this stock. A P/E is not meaningful on negative earnings, so it is not calculated.
You may also refer to the
P/B river chart。
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The vertical dashed line marks the "reported ← | → estimated" boundary: to its left, values derive from reported trailing-four-quarter EPS;
the segment marked "(est.)" on the right uses "1 estimated quarter + 3 reported quarters" — a different basis.
In one line：Take how much business the company recently did (revenue), apply how efficiently it has historically converted that into profit, then divide by share count — that is EPS.
Because the future is uncertain, four methods and an upper/lower range are shown together.
All figures come from monthly revenue and quarterly income statements on the Market Observation Post System, with no manual adjustment.
① Determine the target quarter
Target quarter = the quarter after the most recently reported one (Q4 rolls into Q1 of the next year). The latest reported quarter here is {{Result.BaseYear}} Q{{Result.BaseSeason}}, so the target quarter is {{Result.TargetYear}} Q{{Result.TargetSeason}}。
② Establish the revenue base for the target quarter
All three months of the target quarter {{Result.RevenueYearMonthS}}～{{Result.RevenueYearMonthE}}have been reported, totalling
{{FormatMoney(Result.ForecastRevenue)}}（{{FormatNumber(Result.ForecastRevenue)}} NT$ thousand）。
The revenue base is actual, so the remaining uncertainty comes mainly from the margin estimate.
Of the target quarter {{Result.RevenueYearMonthS}}～{{Result.RevenueYearMonthE}}, {{Result.RevenueCoveredMonths}} month(s) are reported actuals;
the remaining months are estimated as "same month last year × recent YoY growth {{FormatNumber3(Result.RecentYoy)}}", totalling
{{FormatMoney(Result.ForecastRevenue)}}（{{FormatNumber(Result.ForecastRevenue)}} NT$ thousand）。
No monthly revenue has been reported for the target quarter, so the latest three consecutive months（{{Result.RevenueYearMonthS}}～{{Result.RevenueYearMonthE}}）are used instead,
multiplied by the historical seasonal factor {{FormatNumber3(Result.SeasonalRevFactor)}}, giving
{{FormatMoney(Result.ForecastRevenue)}}（{{FormatNumber(Result.ForecastRevenue)}} NT$ thousand）。
Error is largest at this stage; it is worth waiting for the target quarter's monthly revenue.
③ Estimate net margin (three methods + composite)
- Average: arithmetic mean of the trailing 4 quarters' net margin (here（{{FormatNumber2(Result.BaseLevelMargin)}}%）
- Trend: Q-1 × 40%, Q-2 × 30%, Q-3 × 20%, Q-4 × 10%
- Same-quarter: first compute the seasonal factor of the target quarter relative to that year's average net margin over the past 3 years (Y-1 × 50%, Y-2 × 30%, Y-3 × 20%), then multiply by the trailing-4Q average margin. This captures seasonality only, without carrying an old profitability level into the present. This stock uses {{Result.SeasonYearCount}}years, seasonal factor {{FormatNumber3(Result.SeasonalIndex)}}。
- Composite: the median of the three above, which is more resistant to any single method going wrong. This is the page default.
④ Convert consolidated net income to income attributable to owners of the parent
Monthly revenue is consolidated revenue and the numerator of net margin is consolidated income, but the numerator of EPS is "income attributable to owners of the parent"
?。
so it is multiplied by the parent attribution ratio {{FormatNumber4(Result.AttributionRatio)}}, computed as trailing-4Q income attributable to the parent ÷ trailing-4Q net income.
⚠️ The parent attribution ratio for this stock is provisionally taken as 1.0000@Localizer["Eps.Assumed"]；
If the company does have non-controlling interests, the estimated EPS will be slightly overstated.
⑤ Divide by the weighted average ordinary shares outstanding
Weighted average ordinary shares outstanding
?
This stock uses {{FormatShares(Result.WeightedAvgShares)}}（{{FormatNumber(Result.WeightedAvgShares)}} thousand shares），
source priority {{Result.SharesPriority}}：{{Result.SharesSourceText}}。
Target-quarter estimated EPS = revenue base × estimated net margin ÷ 100 × parent attribution ratio ÷ weighted average shares
Target-quarter estimated EPS = revenue base × estimated net margin ÷ 100 × parent attribution ratio ÷ weighted average shares
⑥ Form forward trailing-four-quarter EPS and forward P/E
Forward 4Q EPS
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= target-quarter estimated EPS + the sum of the latest 3 reported quarterly EPS（{{FormatEps(Result.EpsAnnounced3Sum)}} NT$）。
By definition the target quarter is not yet reported, so it does not overlap the 3 reported quarters and nothing is double-counted.
Forward P/E ? = 最新股價 ÷ Forward 4Q EPS。Forward 4Q EPS 為負值時不計算本益比。
Forward P/E ? = 最新股價 ÷ Forward 4Q EPS。Forward 4Q EPS 為負值時不計算本益比。
⑦ Estimate range and consistency check
The range width tracks how far apart the three methods are: band = 1.5 × population standard deviation of the three EPS values ÷ base EPS,
floored at 8% (raised to 12% if a method is downgraded or revenue is partly estimated, and to 18% if no revenue is reported), capped at 35%.
The band here is ±{{BandPercent}}%。
CV = population standard deviation of the three estimated EPS values ÷ mean × 100%; CV ≤ 10% is high agreement, 10%–25% moderate, ≥ 25% low. {{Result.BandNote}}
CV = population standard deviation of the three estimated EPS values ÷ mean × 100%; CV ≤ 10% is high agreement, 10%–25% moderate, ≥ 25% low. {{Result.BandNote}}
{{g.name}}
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| {{d.Name}} | {{d.Value}} | {{d.Note}} |
Backtest detail (re-running the estimate on the data available at the time)
| Quarter | Estimate (composite) | Reported | Error | Inside range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| {{b.Year}} Q{{b.Season}} | {{FormatEps(b.CompositeEps)}} NT$ | {{FormatEps(b.ActualEps)}} NT$ | {{b.ErrorRate > 0 ? '+' : ''}}{{b.ErrorRate}}% | {{b.IsHit ? '✅ ' + I18nUtil.t('Js.Eps.Yes') : '❌ ' + I18nUtil.t('Js.Eps.No')}} |
Data as of
Financial statements through: {{Result.BaseYear}} Q{{Result.BaseSeason}}（reported {{Forecast.BaseAnnoDate}}）
Monthly revenue through: {{Forecast.LatestRevenueYearMonth}}（reported around {{Forecast.LatestRevenueAnnoDate}}）
Next update expected: {{Forecast.NextAnnoDate}}（{{Result.TargetYear}} Q{{Result.TargetSeason}} results are reported, after which the target quarter switches to {{Forecast.NextTargetYear}} Q{{Forecast.NextTargetSeason}}）
EPS estimate updated on {{Forecast.CalcDate}}. Prices move daily; changes in the P/E come from the price, not from a re-run of the EPS estimate.
More on {{Forecast.SymbolName}} ({{Forecast.SymbolCode}})
Disclaimer
This tool produces an automated estimate from published financial data (monthly revenue and quarterly income statements on the Market Observation Post System). It does not constitute investment advice, does not recommend any security, and guarantees neither accuracy nor future profit.The estimate projects next quarter's earnings from reported monthly revenue and historical net margin. It is a simplified model that ignores non-operating gains and losses, currency effects, one-off events, industry cycles and changes in accounting policy, so reported results may differ materially from the estimate.
"Relative position" and "model reliability" are historical statistics; historical error does not indicate future accuracy.
This site does not operate a securities investment consulting business. This page is supporting reference material only; all investment decisions and their risks are your own.
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